Are We On The Cusp Of A War With Iran?
Is a war with Iran likely, are the two sides pushing each other towards a conflict? If there is such a conflict, what would it look like? We try to look into these questions and answer them the best we can.
It seems like it was not long ago that the pundits were yelling from their platform that Trump was trying to get us into a war with the North Koreans, the left was indignant at Trump’s methods, but still now war.
Like back then we heard howls of indignation that he was going to end up getting Hawaii destroyed by nukes, Guam as well, that we could be looking at LA and San Francisco going up in a mushroom cloud; instead we saw not long after this both leaders sitting and talking. North Korea knew Trump was not playing around, we now are witnessing the same thing with Iran. Today we hear the same from the same people, but now they have gotten worse, they are siding openly with Iran over our own president.
Welcome to Trump’s idea of negotiating, a baseball bat and a phone; Fight – we beat you, talk – we meet you.
Trump’s idea of negotiating – A baseball bat and a phone. Fight – we beat you; talk – we meet you.
We are now seeing this displayed to us with Iran. Could Iran turn this into a shooting war? They could, if they wanted to see their nation changed in a way that they can’t comprehend, look back at Iraq during the first Iraq war, this is what Iran would be facing, but it sure would not be in their interest. So Trump continues to deal with Iran as he has with other tyrants, if you wish to fight, we will come looking for you, if you want to talk, we can sit down and work something out.
Iran has been pushing to extend the influence of their revolution since the overthrow of the Shaw. At first, they were in disarray, had to sit back while their military was rebuilt, but they have moved on beyond this, did so long ago.
In their quest to further their influence, Iran has, for years, been using proxies to attack anyone they are displeased with, then sit back and proclaim their innocence, saying they have never attacked anyone in the last 100 years. But let me ask a question, “In a court of law, if you attack someone directly, or pay someone to attack that person, are you any less guilty with the second then with the first?”
This seems to be a switch in the Trump era, in the past, we would look at these proxy wars, attack the ones carrying out the attacks, but ignore the ones behind the group that was financing and training these radicals. We saw this when Hezbollah attacked US soldiers in Beirut under Reagan, while it was known that Iran was behind this, we did not strike at Iran. Instead, we hit Hezbollah’s positions and ignored Iran’s hand in this.
After the second war with Iraq, we captured an Iranian General aiding rebels that were killing American troops, the IED’s in many cases that were used against our soldiers were manufactured in, instead of striking Iranian targets for the killing of our boys, we did nothing.
There is more, we have Iran sponsoring just about every terrorist group there is in the Middle East, except for ISIS, yet nothing is done, these groups attack us, we go after them and leave the sponsorer alone. It is time we have a change of policy, wish Israel would do this also. Change it to this – If you support, train, and arm terrorist groups that attack Americans or American interests, we will not only attack the terrorist, we will also attack in equal veracity the nation that is supporting and arming these terrorists.
It is time we have a change of policy, wish Israel would do this also. Change it to this – If you support, train, and arm terrorist groups that attack Americans or American interests, we will not only attack the terrorist, we will also attack in equal veracity the nation that is supporting and arming these terrorists.
I would love to see if Hezbollah fires off a rocket at Israel, Israel responds with two missiles, one at Iran, one at Hezbollah.
In Saudi Arabia, if you have the rebels in Yemen fire off a rocket at them, they attack both the terrorist and Iranian targets, if you support and arm a group, in many cases hand over hardware you know is going to be used on another, then finance and train this group, when they attack, you should be held equally liable.
Iran has openly attacked us, so what now?
This whole mess blew up when Iran’s proxy fired on a US base, killing a US civilian, Trump’s New Doctrine demanded this be dealt with so we hit them back.
Iran responded by having their proxies attack our embassy, unlike last time where we did nothing….wait, that is not accurate, Obama sent pallets full of cash, tried to buy off the Iranians. Trump was having none of that; he sent a drone with a Missile on special delivery, right for Iran’s General Qasem Soleimani, boom, special paving for the road, a gift from the Iranians.
But what happens if this goes into an open conflict, what would a war look like?
AirPower – Militarily Iran has mostly Generation 3++ and early 4th generation fighters, with a couple 4+ fighters, against American forces that have 4++ fighters and 5th generation fighters coming online, Iran would lose air superiority the day they attacked. In the Air war, Iran would not stand a chance; even if they united with Syria and the Iraqi military, they would not last the day with control of the sky.
This does not add in the component our bombing force would bring to the table, the ability of the B52’s to stand off and launch wave after wave of cruise missiles, the B1 bomber’s ability to go in fast, strike with precision and get out just as quickly. Then there is the trusted B2 bomber; this gives us the ability to hit highly protected area’s, send it in with F22’s, they can take out the air defense, then be on station to protect from air attack, the B2 then can lay waste to whatever the US is going after.
Armor – Iran is equally outdated here. America has continued to upgrade the Abrams tank, arguably one of the better tanks in the world. It is a front line tank with modernized electronics to keep it up to date against modern MBT’s other nations may field; we currently have 6,000 M1 Abrams.
Iran, on the other hand, has 150 Chieftains and their manufactured version of these tanks, these are an older generation British tank. They also have 150 Zulfiqar MBT 1, 2. 3, these are OK tanks, but not in numbers to affect much. 200 M60 Patton’s, a good tank, one the US fielded before the M1, but vintage ’60s and ’70s tech. About 580 T-72’s, from the same era.
They are working on a tank called Karrar, I would not put this as good as the T-90 but is superior to the T-72. Their tank force is weak; they would not be able to hold their own against Israel, let alone a vastly superior numerically American strength.
APC’s – there is not even a contest in this. Iran has 1700 assorted older APC’s, the US has a much more modern and capable force of over 18,000, more are sitting in storage if needed.
Navy – The navies are not even comparable, Iran has no Aircraft carriers, a few larger ships with a greywater navy, the US has a blue water navy with 20 Aircraft carriers, landing ships, nuclear submarines, and a host of other ships. Iran would have to pull its navy to ports or lose them in the opening hours of a war.
Missiles – Iran has a vast missile force, they also have a sound air defense system, but I believe that most of this would be neutralized in the opening days of a conflict, the US would use stealth assets to get close enough to take out any formable air defense units that could pose a threat to US fighters, then take their time destroying the rest.
Iran has short and intermediate-range missiles that could hurt us. Still, most of these would quickly find the launch sites destroyed, then F35’s would be used to fly over, loiter and attack targets of opportunity, using their stealth to avoid being attacked.
I do not worry about a war with Iran; what I would worry about is what would follow. Keeping the peace would be hard, and hopefully, we have learned our lesson from Iraq.
Like it or not, we can free these people from tyranny, but they will hate you, for we are not Muslims, thus soon, the gratitude would quickly switch to resentment and then hatred for most of the people. We would be better served to unseat the current regime, then set up support for the opposition parties, but stay out of the nation-building business.