Another Bernie Win Sends DNC Leadership Scurrying In Panic
The leaders in the DNC are in full panic mode; the one thing they did not want is to have Bernie take the nomination. Such a thing should not have been a surprise, many of Bernie supporters felt cheated in the 2016 election, others feeling he was cheated thought it was their obligation to right this wrong. Either way, you look at this, Bernie is on a roll, the DNC is in panic, they know that a Bernie victory in the primaries will promise another four years of Trump.
With Bloomberg jumping into the race, outspending Bernie by a large margin, one would think with the DNC, the Press, and the attacks from other candidates that Bernie by now would be in a downfall, but this changed in 2016, the path towards the presidential nomination is open despite the roadblocks the establishment is putting in place.
It seems the DNC and the establishment, after seeing the reaction in 2016 towards Trump by the Press, stars, the establishment, and the GOP would have taught them if you go on an all-out assault, you may find such an attack backfiring, but one has to wonder, Trump is a fighter, will Bernie do the same, we haven’t seen much evidence of this to date.
The greatest fear is how Bernie will do against Trump, but not only Bernie, how will his supporters react to a thrashing but Trump if one is handed out, which it will be when they go head to head in debates. Trump followers are tired of being attacked, if Bernie supporters start attacking, one would expect sooner or later they will tire of this and respond in kind, this could set in motion a dangerous situation.
Most polling today shows Sanders riding off of the Press he is getting, which is a trend we saw in the last election cycle. Right now, Real Clear polling shows Sanders with a slight lead over Trump in support, but one has to question the accuracy of the polling. We saw the same thing with Clinton in 2016, due to many not wishing their support of Trump to be discovered, they said nothing then surprised come election day.
Further, one has to look at the polling numbers; they have Bernie leading Trump by 5 points, we take into account the same voters that don’t wish to be harassed by friends and family, you can add another 4 points to Trump’s numbers. This would, at this time, put the two parties at 50.2 for Sanders, 49.6 for Trump, now you have a much closer race.
We have to figure a push for Trump when he is again shown to be the uncontested nominee back for the GOP, but this will more balance things out to what they were at the start of the year if you add in the bounce and then leveling off of the DNC convention.
The next thing we need to look at is the fact that Trump has a roaring economy, as much as the left is trying now to turn the credit of this from Trump to Obama, we see by polling that Trump is the one the American public gives credit to for this.
What is of interest here is in 2018, just before the mid-term election, the polling showed at that time Obama getting more credit for the economy then Trump was (56% Obama, 49% Trump).
In this, time is not on the Democrats side, the longer Trump is in office, and the economy continues going strong, the more credit he will receive for it, this is why the Democrats are trying to focus on the ones not benefiting. Still, they are few between, so they are instead focusing on personal attacks.
But there is more, and this is where it does not matter who the Democrats put forward, people vote according to their pocketbook Asked if they saw themselves as better off then four years ago, people responded, here is the polling:
If we break this down by party, you see even a more significant divide, more so if you compare this to prior elections:
What is of interest here is the disparity of support for this by party. In 2012 our economy had not recovered, despite Obama pumping trillions into it, Obama had the confidence of just 60% of the Democrats that we were doing better, yet today over 89% of Republicans feel the same, this means there is much more enthusiasm within the GOP then there was in the DNC during Obama’s second election.
The Democrats and their mouthpieces in the press want us to feel that the nation is less secure and less respected under Trump, but does polling bear this out, again, from the same article we see this:
Trump has seen these numbers increase, but we are still at war with terrorist, so the feeling that we are safer is not going to be as high as it was in 92 when we did not have a war ongoing, nor is the feeling of respect going to be that high when many of the progressive nations in Europe are at odds with our policies.
This will come down to if the public feels we are better off then we were four years ago. In that case, Trump has a clear lead, with 61% of Americans saying they think they are. This alone should give Trump another 4 points in the vote come November, add to this the three other polling showing in Trump side. We could be looking at another 3 points for Trump. At this point, you would be looking at a 43.2 for Sanders, 56.6 support for Trump.
The last thing we need to look at is how the debates are going to affect the race. Trump is a hitter; he comes in not looking to beat anyone with finesse, he wants to beat them to a pulp, then continues to strike while they are down.
With Trump, there is no letting up, so one has to wonder, how would Sanders react in such a fight? We have seen so far Sanders will more likely back down then come back swinging, this could cost him the same way it cost Clinton. Before the debates, she had a commanding lead; she lost it when Trump came back with the last two debates and destroyed Clinton. I would give Trump 4 more points for this, which would put the race at 39% to 56% for Trump.
Last, we have to remember, many don’t like Trump, they feel he is brash, vengeful, is simply not a likable person, something that endears him to the rest of us. This is going to see Trump lose 5 points in the voting, you will see Sanders pick this up as a protest vote, this would put the final vote at 44% Sanders, 51% Trump, thus bringing about the greatest fear the Democrats have, another four years of Trump!
In the end, this may not matter, I still think the Democrats will find a way to steal this from Sanders, I still fully expect to see a Bloomberg Trump race, but have to admit, after his last performance in the debates, if he has one more performance like this I may have to revise this.