How These 3 Unlikely Demographics Could Put Trump Back In The White House
Some traditionally Democratic voter groups appear to be breaking toward President Donald Trump in the final months of the election, according to recent polling from FiveThirtyEight.
While it’s not likely he will win majorities in these groups — namely, black, Hispanic and college-educated white voters — a large enough percentage voting his way could secure him the election.
Democratic candidates have long won large majorities of voters of color, including black and Hispanic Americans. President Barack Obama won 95% of the black vote in 2008 and 93% of the black vote in 2012, but recent polls are showing Biden could take a smaller majority of both groups on Nov. 3.
Trump was able to secure 11% of the black vote in 2016. Despite a tumultuous three years and a response to the coronavirus pandemic that many Americans have criticized, FiveThirtyEight polls show Trump’s support within the black community has remained steady and even grown.
“If the race is really tight, Trump’s maintaining this sliver of Black support could be critical. In an analysis of the 2016 election, Griffin, John Halpin and Ruy Teixeira argued that Clinton would have won Michigan and Pennsylvania if Black voters in those states had supported her at the levels they did Barack Obama,” Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight wrote. “About 95 percent of black voters in those states backed Obama, and about 90 percent supported Clinton.”
Trump recently announced a campaign platform for black Americans that he says will increase their communities’ access to capital by up to $500 billion. Trump argued at the announcement that Democratic leaders and the liberal establishment have talked about helping the black community without actually making their lives better.
“For decades, Democrat politicians like Joe Biden have taken Black voters for granted. They made you big promises before every election — and then the moment they got to Washington, they abandoned you and sold you out,” Trump said. “The Democrats will always take Black voters for granted until large numbers of Black Americans vote Republican.”
“What do you have to lose?” Trump told the crowd.
Trump’s plan seeks to create the capital for black Americans by creating 3 million jobs and 500,000 new black-owned businesses over the course of his second term. Trump’s plan also announced he will designate the Klu Klux Klan and antifa as terrorist organizations.
Trump also reached out to Hispanic voters in Florida last week, announcing new sanctions on Cuba and accepting the endorsement of the Bay of Pigs Veterans Association. He received their endorsement in 2016, as well.
While polls have yet to be conducted to measure the potential impact of Trump’s announcements, past Republican overtures to minority voters this election cycle have proven fruitful. Independent of his Cuba sanctions, polling suggests a noticeable shift in Hispanic support for Trump. As previously reported by the Daily Caller, an Equis poll conducted in late August suggested a significant growth in support for Trump among older Hispanic voters.
The Republican National Convention (RNC) heavily featured minority speakers. A poll conducted concurrently with the RNC found that a full 24% of black voters said they approved of Trump’s performance as president. While 76% still disapproved, the 24% figure was a full nine points above his polling earlier in August and far above Republicans’ traditional performance in the demographic.
College-educated white voters have also long leaned Democrat, and they still do — but that advantage is reportedly shrinking in critical states, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Silver predicted that “at least” one-third of college-educated white voters will vote for Trump in every single swing state, and in states like Georgia and Texas that number goes up to as much as 40%.
While Trump has also made recent pushes for Minnesota, which some argue has gone from light blue to purple in recent years, college-educated whites outside of the South appear — if anything — more motivated to vote Democrat than in previous elections.
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Trump polls at roughly 33% support among the demographic in Minnesota, and he will likely need to further shrink Biden’s lead if he wants to succeed in taking the state. It’s a similar story for Trump in New Hampshire and Maine, but the anti-Republican influence of a college education appears to have withered in the face of religious sentiment in the South, likely securing critical swing states for the incumbent.
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