No confidence: Biden’s numbers turn negative on every major issue in new Pew poll
Americans are putting out some mighty strong “Let’s go, Brandon” vibes in these new numbers from Pew.
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He’s under 45 percent in confidence on handling COVID, the issue that probably won him the election.
The most consequential mystery in politics right now is what happens to Biden’s polling if, as we all desperately hope, COVID finally abates this year and inflation pressure begins to ease. The optimistic narrative for Democrats is that he’ll get credit for that from voters. When things feel better in the country, the president’s numbers tend to rise, whether he deserves credit for those improving conditions or not.
The pessimistic narrative is that views of Biden have concretized and are no longer much amenable to change, even if conditions change. He’ll get a modest bounce by summer if COVID turns endemic and we get a few encouraging jobs reports, but would anyone be surprised if his ceiling in job approval were 45-46 percent or so at this point? If just five percentage points’ worth of voters who supported him early last year has concluded that he’s not up to the job, they might never return to the fold. He might be roadblocked from a true political comeback.
He’s at 41/56 approval in this poll, right in line with a slew of others. Over the weekend, he recorded his worst numbers as president to date in the RCP poll of polls, bottoming out at 40.5 percent approval and 55.3 percent disapproval in the average.
He saw a modest recovery between late November and mid-December, rising above 44 percent approval. Then Omicron smacked the country across the head with a 2×4. His net disapproval has doubled since December 18.
A scary fact for Dems: His approval rating today is almost exactly what Trump’s was on this date four years ago when the then-president registered 40.1/55.5 in the RCP average. Trump gained a modest amount of ground throughout 2018, eventually reaching 43.9 percent on November 1 of that year. That was low enough for Democrats to wallop Republicans in House races. Biden’s job approval is meaningfully lower right now than Trump’s was that November.
Biden has more reason to hope for a rebound now than Trump did then since views of Biden are more malleable than views of Trump were. People don’t feel as strongly about him, so their perceptions of his performance may be influenced more heavily by events. That’s what Dems are counting on if the picture on COVID brightens as expected.
But it cuts both ways. Inflation could continue to rise. Russia could roll over Ukraine, inspiring China to roll over Taiwan. We could encounter a dangerous new variant that arises abroad (maybe from China?) due to low levels of global population immunity.
Kamala Harris could continue to give interviews.
There’s no telling how bad things might get. And they’re already starkly bad:
The point to bear in mind about declining confidence in Biden is that it’s not Republicans who are driving it. Righties had little confidence in him, to begin with; there’s only so much support he can shed from a cohort of supporters that’s already small. It’s Democrats who began with great expectations and have since found themselves disappointed about, well, everything:
He has two problems within his party. One is that he’s had objectively bad results on priorities that all Americans share, which will hurt him with Dems and everyone else. The other is that he’s trying to manage an unruly coalition that’s frustrated by intraparty gridlock in Congress, with Biden powerless to bring the party’s factions together. I mean:
Manchin’s reportedly furious at Ron Klain, believing that he’s pushed Biden way too far to the Left in prioritizing progressive goals. With centrists and leftists divided and congressional Dems paralyzed, the party’s rank and file are destined to feel disappointed about Biden’s first year. Just 34 percent of Dems think he’ll have a successful presidency now, per Pew, down from 51 percent a year ago. And Manchinema’s veto power over the agenda has left Dem voters believing that Biden is listening to moderates more than he is liberals:
Biden isn’t listening too much to moderates. On the contrary, he wasted months on Build Back Better because he foolishly bought the hype that he had a mandate a la FDR or LBJ despite the hair’s breadth of his margins in the House and Senate. That must be not very pleasant to moderate Dems. But meanwhile, because Manchin and Sinema have successfully stopped BBB and the voting-rights bills, progressives are annoyed that Biden seems incapable of imposing his will. Nobody’s happy.
And so there’s a bit of “Let’s go, Brandon” energy even in his party nowadays.
One more data point for you. Among the various age groups, the one that approves of Biden’s job performance least is … adults aged 18-29, at 35/63. That’s not supposed to happen since younger adults are a liberal-leaning demographic. But maybe that’s just it — twentysomethings, skewing left, are more disappointed than anyone that Biden hasn’t been able to deliver on his agenda. He’s not likely to deliver much this year either, which means the crisis of confidence he’s suffering from his side could persist to Election Day. Big trouble for Dems ahead.
Cross-posted from Hot Air
Notes from the Editor
We see the Democrats retiring in record numbers as polling shows that Americans are not reacting well to Democrat policies being put in place. The press is tiring of him; others openly call for his replacement from his party. The Left sees the writing on the wall; now they are fleeing to say they weren’t part of the loss, they were retiring.
In response, the Democrats seek to seize elections, thus putting themselves in the most favorable position to win elections, even if the majority is against them.
In addition to this, you see the continued practice of lessons they learned so well from Obama, divide, then claim racism is the cause of this. They quickly then point their fingers at everyone else, for if they did not, all the others would be pointing fingers at them for their racism.
As their move to seize power, what they claim is for the better good of all Americans, you are going to see an increasingly shrill outcry from them, trying to stir up fear. We have seen with Covid that fearful people are all too willing to give up freedoms for temporary safety. These people never realize that once the government has taken rights, they are never willing to give them back.
The November, we could end up being witnesses to the greatest loss of seats in both the House and Senate in the history of this nation.
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