Should The US Have Disarmament Talks With Russia Without China?
We hear now that Russia wants to come to the table and talk about total disarmament, but if China is not wishing to join, why would we do this? And it is not only China, in order for a disarmament to actually work, but we also need to get all nations in the nuclear club to reduce or do away with their nukes altogether.
I understand that some nations feel they have to have nukes to protect themselves; North Korea and Israel are great examples of this. North Korea does this for regime survival, Israel does this because even though they refuse to admit, that they have nukes, it gives pause to their enemies, if you destroy Israel you will not have a home to return to, that is a powerful deterrence.
But there is more to this, China, if they refuse to go along with any talks, they are a nuclear power, but the reality is US’s and Russia’s nuke stockpiles vastly dwarf what China has in nukes. Most experts agree that China has between 250 to 400 nukes, they have about 90 ICBMs, all but maybe 30 of them are not able to put the whole USA at risk.
The problem comes with China is with a very diverse and growing stockpile, they are also quickly adding to their ICBM and SLBM’s, are working to catch up to the US and Russia.
Unlike Russia, even the US for that matter, China has continuously pledged to not only never be the first to use nukes in conflict but has also signed treaties not to use any nukes against non-nuclear armed states.
The problem then comes in with China, as the fastest growing military in the world, they are also increasing the size and complexity of their nuclear inventory, to agree to dismantle nukes, or go nuke-free would enable China to resort to nuclear blackmail to get what they want.
I know that China has sworn off the first use of nukes, but if you were the only one that had them, why have them if you aren’t going to use them.
At this point any agreement without China I think is useless, unless it is an agreement to get both the US and Russia to a size of a thousand nukes for each side, but then would halt any agreement beyond that.