Trump Wins Democrat Debate
What is turning out all too familiar, the Democrats have turned on Sanders with an all-out, fur flying, catfight. We are asked to judge who won the Democrat debate. I would say the one that was not there won this debate, our president, Donald Trump.
With Sanders surging, the Democrat challenger that was brought in to take him down failing miserably. This has put the Democrats in a panic. With good reason, as we hear Sanders present his goals of a Sanders presidency, the radical element of his message is showing that he will lose the Hispanic vote in the South due to his support of Castro. But it goes much deeper than this.
The Democrats have counted on the African American vote and the Jewish vote in past elections. Still, there are problems with both of them with Sanders; this is going to be more evident in the polling following this latest democratic debate.
African Americans are still showing support for Biden due to his affiliation with the Obama administration, in October Biden held 24% lead in support among African American voters over the next runner up, today this number is at 32%, that is down from over 50% just a month ago, but Biden still holds a commanding lead.
Where Sanders is losing out is with the Jewish Democrat vote, his anti-Israeli stance, the attacks against the current government of Israel. At the same time, some of the sentiment may be shared; the attacks are not gaining him support. Pew did polling on this in the middle of January, you can see from this one that Sanders is acquiring most of his support from people that are atheist or none religious, among the Jews he has only 11% of their vote.
Sander’s attacks against Israel and his socialist agenda have not made him popular with the White Evangelicals nor black Protestants, their support still seems to be firmly in the Bidden and Warren camp. The most damning is when you look at the break down between Trump and others with the intent of support.
What is most interesting about this is while Jewish support is still strong with the Democrats, the growth of support for Trump within this demographic is alarming to the Democrats.
Further, the Democrats have counted on support for their candidates among blacks to stand over 95% in the past; it very well may not rise at this level now. In 2016 Trump pulled in 8% of the African American vote, today this number by polling shows to be closer to 16%, this would be a terrible blow to the Democrats.
Add to this the lack of enthusiasm with the Hispanic base and Jewish base; this could pose a massive problem for the Democrats in November. The democrat debate is not so much hurting Sanders; it is what he is saying in between them.
So, where is Sanders getting all his support from? The difference is coming from the Youth, while turnout for the primaries is down, the turnout for voters under 30 has risen from 17% in 2016 to over 42% now. This shows that the enthusiasm among older voters is down, but turnout for the Youth is up. It why Sanders is pulling in the numbers he is right now. It has everything to do with participation and enthusiasm.
The pulling in of the Youth, who no longer are taught history as we were taught it, showing how socialism had ruined much of the world, with many professors in college leaning to the extreme left, socialism is now taught as something desirable, people over 40 remember civic classes, the appeal of socialism is not a draw for them.
The promise of free education to people drowning in college debt, free medical care when they are living as students is a draw that is hard to fight against, more so when these same people are never taught about what the end game of socialism is about.
Where the problem coming in now is where the leaders in the DNC see with Sanders rising, the polling shows that he is not that well set up to challenge Trump. While there was high confidence in Bidden going head to head against Trump, the same faith is not showing with Sanders. If you look at the polling below, you see what was seen as an almost 50% draw against Trump by Biden in July of last year, today the highest support is for Sanders now, but he only has 30% that believe this.
In the end, it will all come down to the enthusiasm and turn out.
The demographics of this nation show that Whites make up over 75% of the population, Trump holds support with the majority of white voters, it is even stronger when you look to the evangelicals as seen below. This is also showing strong for him with Protestants in general, except for Black Protestants.
With Catholics, he still holds the lead in support, white Catholics even more, the significant loss is from Hispanic Catholics. Nevertheless, this number is rising in Trump’s favor due to the dissatisfaction with Sanders and his love affair with Communist tyrants.
The problem is going to be Trump’s approval rating, in December of last year, Trump stood with a 46% approval and a 53% disapproval rating, today his standing with a 52% approval rating. As time is going by, and the economy is moving at a high pace, people are happy with the state of our economy today.
Further, if you look at the Democrat message during this latest democrat debate, they claim that Trump has done more to divide this nation along race lines then has been done in years. Yet, the public perception is not buying into this narrative; today, polling shows Americans’ satisfaction with race relations has Increased 14 percent since Trump’s inauguration.
This could be the death blow to Democrat hopes. They have for years based their resistance due to claims that Trump is a racist, has done more to divide this nation, then aid it, yet this is now not being seen as such an issue.
I have called for an election between Bloomberg and Trump, but at this point, I have been disappointed in his effort in the debates, I may have reaccess my call, this may end up being a Bernie Trump contest, if this is the case, I see the Democrats losing most of the undecided voters, the more conservative Democrats.
This latest democratic debate did not help Bernie; other then with his followers that already support him, to the rest, it has shown that he is not able to show how he will pay for what he wants to put in place. What we had was more empty promises with no explanation of how to pay for them.
I don’t see many Democrats crossing over to vote for Trump in protest, but many are crossing over due to Trump’s performance, many of these will sit out rather than hold their nose and vote. We may find this to a certain extent with the undecided, they will either abstain, or Trump could pull their vote because the alternative is seeing a socialist in power. This will come down to turn out among the youth vs. the older voters. If this is the case, Trump will win in a landslide.