Why The Iran Deal Is Set Up To Fail
Due to the Iranian demand that their revolutionary guard is taken off the terrorist list and the demand that any treaty cannot be undone once signed into law, even if the Biden administration signs onto the treaty, it will fail.
On Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said, “We believe that today we are closer to an agreement in Vienna than ever before.” But he warned: “We reminded the Americans that we will not cross our red lines.”
Amirabdollahian likely was referring to two key issues that reportedly remain to be resolved: Tehran’s demand that its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps be granted immunity from U.S. sanctions imposed on foreign terrorist organizations and its insistence on receiving a guarantee that the U.S. will not withdraw from the agreement, as President Donald Trump did in 2018.
Windfall for Revolutionary Guards
The Revolutionary Guards have become a major stumbling block of the negotiations because they represent many aspects of why Iran was sanctioned in the first place. They control vital portions of Iran’s covert nuclear weapons efforts. Still, they also control Iran’s ballistic missiles, orchestrate Iran’s proxy terrorist network, serve as the regime’s repressive Praetorian Guard, and dominate important sectors of Iran’s economy.
U.S. sanctions on the Revolutionary Guards are a necessary punitive action that drains their access to funds from their front companies and deters future terrorist attacks.
If the sanctions on the Revolutionary Guards were lifted, the regime in Tehran would pocket more benefits from a new agreement than under the original deal, which did not include lifting nonnuclear sanctions. Moreover, the Revolutionary Guards will gain enormous economic benefits that they surely will use to finance malign activities.
An agreement could be announced as soon as next week and will be lauded as a diplomatic triumph by the Biden White House.
This Is Where The Problems Begin
What is not be acknowledged by either side is to bind such a treaty into law; it has to be ratified by 2/3rds of the Senate; this is something, with the Democrats only holding a one-vote lead, would be impossible at this present time. After the elections, this fall, with the GOP likely to take control of the Senate and the House, any such vote would be even more unlikely.
This is the same problem the Obama administration ran into with their nuclear deal with Iran. It was never ratified into law by the Senate; Trump was able to undo the treaty and say he would no longer honor it. Of course, this treaty, like the one now, was blamed on the Democrats; Kerry complained that it was impossible to ratify a treaty in today’s political climate. I beg to differ; if you did not sell out the country, our allies to get the treaty, you may have had the consent of the Senate.
The Senate is no different today than it was under Obama; at this point, 49 Republicans in the Senate have pledged to vote against ratifying the new Iran nuclear deal, thus killing it before it even hits the floor. The only GOP Senator that refused to sign the bill did not do so because he was for it; rather, Ron Paul stated since there was no such treaty yet, why would he sign onto refusing to endorse it?
In the end, this treaty, like the last one, due to it not being able to be ratified, if the GOP takes back the White House, be it Trump or someone else, the treaty will be dealt with in the same manner as the last one, tossed into the garbage bin of mistakes the GOP will have to fix from this inept administration.
The Israel Problem
There is the last issue with this treaty, one that would enable Iran to develop nukes without repercussions; Israel has said that is a red line they will not allow to be crossed.
While Obama and now Biden will try to pass this agreement as bringing peace to the Middle East, it will do the opposite. Arab nations, upon seeing the ending of this treaty arriving, will go all out to obtain their nukes to counter any threat by Iran. Rather than making the Middle East safe, this will force a nuclear arms race on the region, exactly as was stated in response to the last treaty.
What stopped the arms race with the last treaty was Trump stepped into the office and shut down the treaty before the other Middle East nations would have been forced to respond.
As we had seen when Israeli National Security agents accessed Iran’s nuclear program documents, something the New York Times went out of its way to discredit, the facts remained. While negotiations over the nuclear program under Obama were ongoing, the Iranians were involved in nuclear arms research, contrary to their claims.
This is the red line with Israel, one they have publically stated many times. They have openly stated that they have invested millions into planning and constructing a response to what they see as already having crossed this red line; one would say it is no longer a question of if Israel strikes, only when.
This then sets up the question: If Israel strikes, how much support can they expect from the U.S. under Biden?
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